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Photo of my last trip to the gas station “Why are stocks hitting all-time highs when oil prices are above $100, consumer sentiment is at record lows, and geopolitical headlines look scary?” This is the question I have been asked more than any other in recent weeks. The answer: Because markets are forward-looking. Stocks are priced based on long-term future cash flows. A temporary spike in oil prices matters less to intrinsic value than some investors assume. Markets care mo

May 9, 2026 What do the Great Hanoi Rat Massacre of 1902 and MLB’s new ABS challenge system have in common? Both show how incentives can lead to unintended consequences. In 1902, French colonial authorities in Hanoi offered a bounty of one cent for every tail from a dead rat to control the city’s growing rat population. The program appeared to be successful with daily tails peaking at 20,000. Eventually, officials noticed many tail-less rats throughout the city. It turned o

May 4, 2026 "If I had a magic wand and could eliminate one bias, it would be overconfidence." ~ Daniel Kahneman (1934–2024) I asked AI to tell me why I was wrong about a stock I liked. It did. Most investors use AI to efficiently gather information in support of a thesis. The better investors use it to blow holes in it. I now use AI as my designated bear. I explicitly ask it for the strongest arguments against my own ideas. Some asset managers are already moving in this dir

Quarterly Investment Commentary | April 2026 "War is long periods of boredom punctuated by moments of sheer terror." Anon. · WWI era, c. 1914 The Quarter the Playbook Got Shredded Markets, like war, are mostly boring … until they aren't. The first quarter of 2026 was supposed to be uneventful: earnings solid, rates drifting lower, AI humming along. Then, in four weeks, the Supreme Court struck down tariff authority under IEEPA, the U.S. and Israel conducted strikes ki